This simulation provides a probabilistic forecast of AGI and ASI timelines using Monte Carlo methods, accounting for key factors:
Every technology has a limit. The model assumes the current paradigm will hit a ceiling, requiring a scientific breakthrough for further progress.
Includes Data Wall (data scarcity), energy constraints, and safety-related pauses (alignment moratoriums).
Once AI reaches researcher-level intelligence, it begins accelerating its own development — a feedback loop leading toward rapid capability growth.
The result is a probability distribution showing the most likely time windows for AGI and ASI emergence.
Conservative estimate accounting for energy and logistical constraints ("Power Wall").
Reflects rapid architectural progress, now slowing due to data scarcity ("Data Wall").
Current architecture limit (AGI threshold = 10.0). Final push requires a paradigm shift.
Ensures statistical significance and smooth distribution curves.
Not an "all-knowing god" but an autonomous AI researcher at PhD level. Solves novel abstract reasoning tasks (ARC-AGI-2 level).
The Singularity point. Qualitative leap comparable to the gap between an academic and a first-grader. Compresses decades of R&D into months.